Presidential popularity in Mexico and Peru: Traditional approaches, new perspectives
Description
This dissertation analyzes two extremely popular presidents, Mexico's Carlos Salinas de Gortari and Peru's Alberto Fujimori, to gauge the relevance of three variables frequently used to explain the evolution of presidential approval ratings in advanced democracies: time, the economy and news media coverage. After an extensive analysis of public opinion polls from the two countries, this study concludes that none of these variables, by themselves, could have had a determining influence on the development of presidential popularity ratings in Mexico and Peru. In the case of Peru, neither time, media coverage nor the president's economic achievements appear to have affected the public's willingness to support Fujimori. If anything, the evidence indicates instead that popular support for the Peruvian president can be reliably---if not conclusively---related to political factors, such as the dismemberment of the Sendero Luminoso guerrilla movement. Similarly, in Mexico no discernable link was found between President Salinas's approval ratings and time, media coverage or 'pocketbook' factors. A potential correlation was discovered, however, between support for the president and popular endorsement of his administration's economic reform program. Of particular interest is this dissertation's finding that the issues that appear to be most closely related to presidential approval ratings in Mexico and Peru share a common trait: their ability to create hope among the population. Consequently, without attempting to establish a definite relationship between these issues, this study suggests that presidential popularity in these countries could have been guided by government initiatives---whether economic or political in nature---that had the capacity to alter popular expectations of the future. From this perspective, it may have not mattered if these policies were capable of delivering any immediate rewards to the population as long as they generated future hopes. The fact that they were implemented with minimum regard for democratic procedures also seems to have been of little importance to voters, despite the potentially dire consequences for the future development of democracy in Mexico and Peru